Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa5ae…3c09
politics · 33 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage77d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 64% −$4
other 18% $0
sports 15% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $56 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 25h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 25h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 7d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 8d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $56 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $56 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 20d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 20d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 21d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $57 21d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 25d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $57 25d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 25d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $58 25d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $58 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 30d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.97 · official $55.97 (match) · 181 history records