Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5b1…fbe8 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$238 (-0%) realized −$238 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$934per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$234
tech 38% −$34
finance 4% +$1
other 4% −$38
world 2% −$4
politics 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 73 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 3% -9.9%
all 73 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -9.9%
10% -20.1% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage66d
Avg bet$934
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $30 −$3 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $498 −$27 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 −$27 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $68 −$5 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $233 −$10 -4%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 25 $249 +$7 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 21 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 21 $20,735 −$28 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 19 $1,601 −$3 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 19 $800 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 19 $2,400 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $21,694 −$32 -0%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $2 $0 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 18 $10 $0 +1%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem (Doubles): Cavalle-Reimers/Salden vs May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Spread: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (-1.5) May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 16 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $60 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $1,105 −$1 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 63°F or below on May 14? May 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Paul Salomone be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2 May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 11? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 11 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5) May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on May 11? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 10 $1 $0 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 09 $400 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 10? May 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May May 09 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 09 $200 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $28 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $66 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $71 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $68 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $57 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $61 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $59 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $76 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $82 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $76 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $82 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $96 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records