Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5b3…4121 other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$39
sports 27% −$22
politics 9% −$9
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage139d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $298 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $123 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 21 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $316 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $515 −$2 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $327 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $295 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $446 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $603 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $202 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 7h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 8h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 14h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 16h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 23h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 26h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 30h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 31h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 32h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 34h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $61 39h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 40h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $26 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1387 history records