Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5b3…aec8 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
politics 22% $0
other 18% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.3%
all 30 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage380d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $38 −$3 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $33 +$2 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $32 −$2 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayo Jul 08 $24 $0 +2%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 10h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $38 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $34 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $34 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $37 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $34 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $20 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $10 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $10 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $20 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $14 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $17 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $30 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $30 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $30 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 89¢ $18 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 89¢ $12 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $32 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 63¢ $33 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $33 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.92 · official $31.92 (match) · 82 history records