Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5ba…a64b crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$325 (-9%) realized −$312 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$68
other 37% +$147
sports 9% −$79
world 5% −$200
culture 5% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +29.2% +16.9% 33% 33% -3.7%
≤30d 9 +29.2% +16.9% 33% 33% -3.7%
≤90d 22 -18.8% -26.5% 27% 27% -23.0%
all 27 +7.9% -2.3% 37% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 37% -15.6%
10% -11.7% 37% -23.7%
15% -20.2% 30% -31.1%
20% -28.0% 26% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$73 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage195d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Melissa Mullins 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $64 +$89 +139%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $24 +$81 +344%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $153 +$346 +226%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $57 −$55 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $178 −$175 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 20 $304 −$88 -29%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $200 −$34 -17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 13 $115 +$116 +101%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 30 Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 8? Apr 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 13 $110 +$83 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$48 +48%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 13 $676 −$13 -2%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Mar 15 $200 −$67 -33%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 2? Jan 03 $20 +$77 +387%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $32 +$73 +228%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jan 02 $325 +$76 +24%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 30 $100 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 100¢ $153 20m
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 13¢ $14 47m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 100¢ $104 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 41¢ $64 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 22¢ $24 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 1h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 23¢ $57 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 11¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 16¢ $51 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $118 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 35¢ $117 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 48¢ $98 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $166 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $92 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $304 47h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $266 47h
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $20 68d
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $20 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $193 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $60 68d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $200 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $231 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $110 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $148 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $100 68d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $663 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.05 · official $250.05 (match) · 231 history records