Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa5be…f2db politics 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,327 (-1%) realized −$1,328 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate28%31W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$826per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$46
other 33% −$14
sports 11% −$1,239
culture 7% −$7
world 4% −$32
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -20.5% -28.1% 4% 0% -12.7%
all 110 +0.7% -8.9% 28% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 13% -10.8%
10% -17.6% 12% -19.4%
15% -25.6% 9% -27.2%
20% -32.9% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,271) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$969
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses31 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage149d
Avg bet$826
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $557 $558 +$1 (+0%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $411 $411 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $2,077 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $2,132 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,281 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,762 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,734 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $370 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $483 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,023 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $519 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,779 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $655 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $311 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $324 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3,533 −$6 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,118 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,147 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $453 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $453 $0 -0%
Will CF América win on 2026-02-07? Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-08? Apr 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Apr 07 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-02? Apr 07 $119 −$119 -100%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Apr 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Apr 07 $141 −$141 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 07 $1,135 −$1,135 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $411 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $413 3h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $413 5h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $414 24h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $414 27h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $408 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $409 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $413 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $414 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $415 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $375 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $376 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $557 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $722 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $723 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $948 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $950 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $906 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $849 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $850 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $933 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $934 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $708 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $709 22d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $811 23d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $812 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $969.34 · official $969.34 (match) · 347 history records