Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5bf…f4ae politics 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$5
other 26% −$3
crypto 16% −$4
sports 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$739) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage85d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 22 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $739 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $753 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $714 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 13 $747 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 12 $720 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $716 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 29? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Thomas Detry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $164 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 15m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $1,345 23m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $1,307 1h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $925 1h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $256 1h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 2h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 36d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 36d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 36d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 36d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 36d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 36d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 36d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 36d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 36d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 38d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 38d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 38d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $30 38d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $751 39d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL No 98¢ $49 39d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 98¢ $11 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $681 39d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 98¢ $18 39d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 98¢ $20 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $578 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.27 · official $57.27 (match) · 81 history records