Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A5 0xa5bf…8763 crypto 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32,466 (-53%) realized −$30,014 · open −$2,452
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%80W / 214L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38,959
7 days−$37,387
14 days−$37,819
30 days−$37,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$839
other 31% −$688
sports 5% −$9
culture 4% −$1,651
world 1% −$425
finance 1% −$51
economics 1% +$208
tech 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -28.9% -35.6% 12% 10% -78.0%
≤30d 139 -27.8% -34.7% 14% 12% -75.3%
≤90d 198 -12.2% -20.5% 22% 19% -60.2%
all 294 -12.5% -20.9% 27% 25% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 25% -50.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 23% -54.9%
15% -35.3% 20% -59.3%
20% -41.7% 18% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$278 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$6,088
Realized−$30,014
Unrealized−$2,452
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses80 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions22
Markets (closed)294 / 201
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$303
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $2,865 $1,108 −$1,758 (-61%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $646 $653 +$8 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $600 $592 −$8 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $492 $515 +$22 (+5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $466 $504 +$38 (+8%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $516 $504 −$13 (-2%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $503 $470 −$33 (-7%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $355 $352 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $265 $238 −$28 (-10%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $224 $185 −$39 (-18%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 26¢ $173 $173 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $135 $138 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 46¢ 21¢ $250 $115 −$134 (-54%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $515 $113 −$402 (-78%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $97 $88 −$8 (-9%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $76 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 69¢ 70¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 54¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? No 16¢ 6¢ $144 $53 −$91 (-63%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Jun 27 $464 −$464 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 27 $369 −$369 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Jun 27 $227 −$227 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? Jun 27 $402 −$402 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 15? Jun 27 $257 −$257 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 24? Jun 27 $134 −$134 -100%
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5? Jun 27 $247 +$232 +94%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 27 $964 −$964 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 5? Jun 27 $147 −$147 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9? Jun 27 $229 −$166 -73%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 18? Jun 27 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 12? Jun 27 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15? Jun 27 $175 +$26 +15%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 6? Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Jun 27 $393 −$393 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 20? Jun 27 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15? Jun 27 $58 −$58 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $426 −$426 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 20? Jun 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $199 +$181 +91%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Jun 27 $395 −$315 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 24? Jun 27 $267 −$267 -100%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Jun 27 $163 −$163 -100%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $157 −$157 -100%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? (Feb Jun 27 $497 −$497 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 17? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 26? Jun 27 $0 +$100 +300845%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 18? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? ( Jun 27 $162 −$162 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 27 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? Jun 27 $580 −$580 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 6? Jun 27 $217 −$217 -100%
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 27 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 27 $145 −$145 -100%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 27 $166 −$166 -100%
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 27 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 11? Jun 27 $0 +$196 +176300%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 18? Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 19? Jun 27 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 5? Jun 27 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 1? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 18? Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 8? Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 13? Jun 27 $289 −$289 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 16? Jun 27 $270 −$270 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 3? Jun 27 $411 −$411 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Jun 27 $195 −$195 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 9? Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jun 27 $951 −$951 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $55 10m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $58 10m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $28 10m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $2 36m
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $3 57m
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $63 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $0 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $199 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $90 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $25 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $192 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $110 2h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 51¢ $71 2h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $15 2h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $179 2h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 53¢ $68 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $617 2h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $303 2h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $302 2h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 2h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $61 2h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $31 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 75¢ $331 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,087.57 · official $6,082.91 (match) · 3500 history records