Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5c1…4626 world 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
sports 20% −$13
politics 19% −$1
other 19% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 14% 14% -9.3%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 24% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 64 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 2% -9.6%
all 65 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage486d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $65 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $27 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $23 6m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 6m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $3 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.00 (match) · 243 history records