Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5c2…dd15 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$52 (+9%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$69
politics 16% +$25
crypto 13% −$43
world 11% +$8
culture 3% $0
sports 3% −$10
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +47.1% +33.1% 100% 100% +33.1%
all 23 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 43% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 43% +0.6%
10% -16.6% 39% -9.1%
15% -24.7% 30% -17.8%
20% -32.0% 22% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage206d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Apr 28 $76 +$36 +47%
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026? Mar 17 $66 +$10 +15%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $36 +$30 +85%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 21 $20 +$9 +45%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 21 $29 −$22 -78%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jan 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in December? Jan 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in December? Jan 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in December? Jan 01 $2 $0 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Dec 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 29? Dec 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 28? Dec 29 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 27? Dec 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Dec 26 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 26? Dec 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 23? Dec 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 22? Dec 22 $7 +$7 +100%
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso Dec 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 21 $20 +$14 +72%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? Dec 21 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06? Dec 19 $20 +$16 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 101d
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026? BUY No 87¢ $66 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 156d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? SELL Yes $7 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 166d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 172d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 174d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 174d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? SELL No 77¢ $21 179d
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in December? BUY No 92¢ $2 180d
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in December? BUY No 93¢ $2 180d
Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in December? BUY No 97¢ $2 180d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 29? BUY Up 50¢ $3 180d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 29? BUY Up 51¢ $10 180d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 28? BUY Up 51¢ $10 182d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 27? BUY Down 31¢ $9 182d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 182d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 26? BUY Up 72¢ $1 183d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 26? BUY Up 72¢ $9 183d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 26? BUY Up 72¢ $10 183d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 23? BUY Up 26¢ $5 186d
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seaso SELL Yes 91¢ $10 186d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 23? BUY Up 46¢ $13 186d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 97¢ $13 186d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 22? BUY Up 50¢ $7 187d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? BUY No 74¢ $20 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.35 · official $110.35 (match) · 51 history records