Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5c4…74bb sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-9%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% $0
other 35% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -25.6% -32.7% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤30d 18 -25.6% -32.7% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤90d 18 -25.6% -32.7% 33% 33% -12.1%
all 18 -25.6% -32.7% 33% 33% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 33% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 33% -20.5%
15% -45.0% 33% -28.2%
20% -50.4% 22% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 46¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $9 +$3 +37%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $13 +$28 +220%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $11 +$5 +47%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$17 -65%
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Jun 26 $3 −$2 -96%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $26 +$18 +72%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $26 +$18 +72%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $17 −$15 -86%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $12 19m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $86 19m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 19m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $16 40m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $22 46m
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $17 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $25 3h
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $11 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $2 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 23¢ $2 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 77¢ $14 7h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $25 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $26 7h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $3 7h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.30 · official $68.32 (match) · 41 history records