trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,605 | $166 | −$1,439 (-90%) |
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) | Germany | 67¢ | 0¢ | $2,679 | $0 | −$2,679 (-100%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $4,128 | $0 | −$4,128 (-100%) |
| Paraguay to score first vs. United States? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $412 | $0 | −$412 (-100%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $600 | $0 | −$600 (-100%) |
| Will Greece win on 2026-03-27? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $40 | $0 | −$40 (-100%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $120 | $0 | −$120 (-100%) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30? | Up | 2¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Will England win on 2026-03-27? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $1,125 | $0 | −$1,125 (-100%) |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1,411 | $0 | −$1,411 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States to score first vs. Paraguay? | Jun 13 | $833 | +$613 | +74% |
| Paraguay to score first vs. United States? | Jun 12 | $510 | −$500 | -98% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1 | Jun 12 | $563 | +$582 | +104% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $141 | +$59 | +41% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $428 | −$412 | -96% |
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) | Mar 30 | $2,679 | −$2,679 | -100% |
| Will England vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Mar 27 | $2,317 | +$2,221 | +96% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? | Mar 27 | $1,012 | +$336 | +33% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? | Mar 27 | $994 | −$14 | -1% |
| Will England win on 2026-03-27? | Mar 27 | $1,125 | −$1,125 | -100% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-03-27? | Mar 27 | $1,000 | +$125 | +12% |
| Will Greece win on 2026-03-27? | Mar 27 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | Jan 31 | $1,411 | −$1,411 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 30 | $4,128 | −$4,128 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | Jan 30 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-01-30? | Jan 30 | $2,000 | +$860 | +43% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 30? | Jan 30 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? | Jan 29 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-29? | Jan 29 | $250 | +$378 | +151% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +29.6% | +17.3% | 75% | 75% | +24.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 60% | 60% | +3.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 50% | 50% | -16.0% |
| all | 19 | -23.5% | -30.8% | 42% | 42% | -35.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.8% | 42% | -35.9% |
| 10% | -37.4% | 37% | -42.1% |
| 15% | -43.5% | 32% | -47.7% |
| 20% | -49.0% | 21% | -52.8% |