Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5c9…274c other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$116 (-0%) realized −$117 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 116L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$214
politics 34% −$43
sports 21% +$132
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -2.4% -11.7% 18% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 9% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$992) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$9 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage136d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $529 $531 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,695 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $849 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,048 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $257 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $382 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $745 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $259 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,182 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $2,824 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $999 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,721 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $169 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 02 $192 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $202 +$1 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,355 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $416 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $416 3h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $418 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 7h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $418 22h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $419 26h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $417 26h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $417 30h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $419 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $420 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $415 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $416 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $419 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $420 9d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $419 9d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $420 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $529 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $866 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $868 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $944 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $946 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $940 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $941 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $839 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $849 16d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $814 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.67 · official $530.67 (match) · 465 history records