Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa5cc…feb0
world · 108 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$145 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$492 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,872
Realized−$492
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses53 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)94 / 108
Avg bet$417
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 14 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$3,724
14 days−$1,661
30 days−$1,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $400 $400 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 55¢ 52¢ $300 $281 −$19 (-6%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 69¢ 69¢ $257 $257 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-3%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-68%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? No 21¢ 0¢ $2,213 $0 −$2,213 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? No 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? No 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? No 34¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? No 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $200 −$11 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $320 −$8 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $300 −$8 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $470 −$222 -47%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $443 +$21 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $505 +$4 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $54 +$12 +23%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $100 −$12 -12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $230 +$38 +16%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $241 +$14 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $127 +$19 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $145 −$88 -60%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $731 −$76 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $400 +$26 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $50 +$25 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$132 +66%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 08 $738 −$703 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $540 +$201 +37%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 07 $100 +$78 +78%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 07 $361 +$18 +5%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 07 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $767 −$689 -90%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $358 −$187 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 06 $15 −$4 -28%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $2,268 −$2,213 -98%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 05 $200 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $1,000 +$52 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 04 $510 −$353 -69%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $482 +$148 +31%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $1,100 +$75 +7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $911 +$657 +72%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $301 +$20 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $301 +$20 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 +$36 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,340 +$505 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $421 +$199 +47%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 01 $766 +$505 +66%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $205 +$576 +281%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $1,122 −$381 -34%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $995 +$17 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $1,474 −$1,230 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $200 +$58 +29%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $202 −$2 -1%
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? May 26 $303 −$7 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $325 +$79 +24%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 26 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $50 −$14 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 53% +$3,247
politics 23% −$1,388
other 14% −$2,202
tech 8% −$172
finance 1% −$12
crypto 0% +$7
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $300 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $66 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $84 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 59¢ $189 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $312 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $292 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $401 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 63¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $300 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 87¢ $503 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $320 16h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 85¢ $324 20h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $26 20h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $31 21h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $203 21h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 89¢ $261 21h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $2 21h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 21h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $150 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL No 74¢ $176 22h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $88 22h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $305 22h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $100 22h
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $505 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -12.9% -21.2% 48% 26% -43.7%
≤30d 68 +30.2% +17.8% 60% 38% -13.6%
≤90d 94 +14.5% +3.6% 56% 37% -10.9%
all 94 +14.5% +3.6% 56% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 37% -10.9%
10% -6.3% 26% -19.5%
15% -15.3% 15% -27.2%
20% -23.6% 11% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,871.51 · official $1,871.54 (match) · 407 history records