Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5ce…a5a3 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$45
sports 24% −$37
crypto 3% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -28.5% -35.3% 35% 35% -10.8%
≤30d 23 -33.3% -39.6% 35% 35% -10.1%
≤90d 43 -18.5% -26.3% 60% 21% -8.1%
all 45 -17.9% -25.7% 58% 20% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 20% -8.1%
10% -32.8% 18% -16.9%
15% -39.3% 16% -24.9%
20% -45.3% 11% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage204d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +86%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $74 +$8 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$35 +346%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$13 +26%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$21 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -97%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Michael" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? May 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 April 20-26? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 27? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 -5%
Hornets vs. Raptors Dec 06 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $20 10h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $74 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $50 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $10 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $14 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $5 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $7 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 100¢ $50 40d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 70¢ $35 43d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 61d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.13 · official $56.13 (match) · 78 history records