Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5cf…dffd crypto 456 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%191W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day77.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$85
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 32% -9.9%
≤30d 456 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 33% -13.0%
≤90d 456 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 33% -13.0%
all 456 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 33% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 33% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 21% -21.3%
15% -30.4% 11% -28.9%
20% -37.2% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses191 / 265
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day77.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1323 history records