Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5cf…7972 sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,532 (-20%) realized −$1,533 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%39W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$261
14 days−$718
30 days−$1,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$316
crypto 26% −$420
other 23% −$589
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -22.3% -29.7% 32% 30% -19.5%
≤30d 134 -29.5% -36.3% 29% 27% -30.0%
≤90d 134 -29.5% -36.3% 29% 27% -30.0%
all 134 -29.5% -36.3% 29% 27% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 27% -30.0%
10% -42.4% 27% -36.7%
15% -47.9% 22% -42.8%
20% -53.0% 21% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$31 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$1,533
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses39 / 95
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions6
Markets (closed)134 / 173
History coverage16d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 Jun 27 $50 +$178 +356%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $30 +$36 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 −$16 -16%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $111 −$109 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $20 −$8 -37%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $168 +$118 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $54 −$10 -19%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $40 +$14 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$40 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $72 −$9 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$99 +194%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $67 −$40 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $88 −$86 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $109 +$134 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$27 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals AND Deniz Undav: 2+ goals AND Vinícius Júnior: BUY 2¢ $10 50m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Ger BUY 7¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 12¢ $3 19h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 3¢ $3 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 20h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $41 20h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 41h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $40 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dr BUY 2¢ $10 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Bot BUY 40¢ $49 42h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06 BUY 21¢ $50 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL 26¢ $84 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 29¢ $100 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 25¢ $41 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $80 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 25¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.34 · official $225.01 · 328 history records