Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5d0…2527 sports 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized +$15 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day111.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$452
7 days+$40
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$281
sports 44% +$198
crypto 2% −$11
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 38% -8.4%
≤30d 75 -3.9% -13.1% 39% 37% -11.2%
≤90d 75 -3.9% -13.1% 39% 37% -11.2%
all 75 -3.9% -13.1% 39% 37% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 37% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 33% -19.7%
15% -29.0% 29% -27.4%
20% -36.0% 21% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$41 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions13
Markets (closed)75 / 88
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day111.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 46¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 98¢ $73 $76 +$3 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $88 $74 −$15 (-17%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 58¢ 57¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 12¢ 10¢ $80 $70 −$11 (-13%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 16¢ 11¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-30%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 37¢ 30¢ $22 $17 −$4 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 81¢ 87¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $84 −$79 -94%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 +$20 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $95 +$36 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$19 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $38 +$17 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $18 +$68 +365%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $45 +$56 +123%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $72 +$20 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $97 +$91 +93%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $35 +$10 +29%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $55 +$64 +117%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $46 +$17 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$227 +224%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$11 +17%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $88 +$190 +216%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $98 +$315 +322%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $2 22m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $3 49m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 41¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 41¢ $41 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.33 · official $462.33 (match) · 912 history records