Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa5d3…9fc7 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+1%) realized +$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 59L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$484
7 days−$466
14 days−$466
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$272
sports 47% +$72
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -35.8% -41.9% 14% 7% -13.7%
≤30d 79 +9.0% -1.4% 32% 22% -8.5%
≤90d 89 +7.6% -2.6% 34% 21% -8.3%
all 89 +7.6% -2.6% 34% 21% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 21% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 15% -17.1%
15% -20.5% 13% -25.1%
20% -28.3% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +41% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$38 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage32d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $724 +$447 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $164 −$28 -17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$37 -72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $500 +$244 +49%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -86%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 −$7 -84%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $405 −$125 -31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $243 −$28 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $802 −$220 -27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $187 −$17 -9%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$17 -8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $800 −$98 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,173 −$20 -2%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 −$75 -77%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $365 −$24 -6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $526 −$37 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $404 −$42 -10%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $490 −$166 -34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $300 +$22 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $338 −$32 -10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $200 −$18 -9%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$13 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$83 -42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$5 -53%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $92 −$27 -30%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,220 −$87 -7%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $453 −$350 -77%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $479 +$387 +81%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $464 +$312 +67%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $90 +$11 +12%
CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 0.5 May 31 $1,088 −$69 -6%
Will CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar end in a draw? May 31 $202 −$8 -4%
Will UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF end in a draw? May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $405 +$62 +15%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $606 −$56 -9%
Switzerland vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 May 31 $265 +$20 +8%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $37 −$4 -10%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $400 +$30 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $470 −$23 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $203 −$28 -14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $176 +$54 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $205 +$77 +37%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 30 $44 +$6 +14%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 May 30 $28 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $72 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $108 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $260 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 5¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $26 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 23¢ $987 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $204 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $136 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $59 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $56 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $8 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $103 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $8 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $1 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $1 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $3 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $1 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $4 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $14 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $60 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $100 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $3 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $15 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 680 history records