Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5d8…415c other 531 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,615 (+1%) realized +$1,543 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate86%452W / 74L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$63
14 days+$343
30 days+$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$280
world 14% +$1,137
politics 3% −$62
culture 1% +$229
weather 0% +$51
sports 0% −$110
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.5% -6.4% 85% 20% -8.7%
≤30d 58 +2.7% -7.1% 88% 19% -6.9%
≤90d 196 -8.2% -16.9% 74% 23% -12.2%
all 526 +2.2% -7.5% 86% 22% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 22% -8.3%
10% -16.4% 11% -17.1%
15% -24.5% 6% -25.1%
20% -31.9% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$125 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$1,686
Realized+$1,543
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses452 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)526 / 531
History coverage177d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $487 $500 +$12 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $497 $499 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $456 $470 +$14 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 73¢ 100¢ $110 $150 +$40 (+37%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $65 $67 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $398 +$22 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $186 −$48 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $628 +$19 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $342 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $484 −$131 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$20 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $499 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $428 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $471 +$81 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $407 −$71 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $509 +$29 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $390 +$10 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $290 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $390 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $219 +$11 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $293 +$41 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $293 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $294 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $414 +$35 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $370 +$25 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $91 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $112 +$36 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $203 +$13 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $317 +$24 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $364 +$17 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $339 +$11 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $320 +$24 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $363 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $158 +$42 +27%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 31 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 31 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $278 +$22 +8%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, May 29 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $311 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $360 −$8 -2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 27 $122 +$15 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $46 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $74 37m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $119 38m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 39m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 39m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 55m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 55m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 55m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $111 18h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $93 19h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 19h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $58 19h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 20h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 20h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $155 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 25h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $195 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $138 39h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,686.03 · official $1,686.03 (match) · 3169 history records