Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa5db…0828 other 1587 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1583W / 4L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$8
sports 48% +$3
world 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 860 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1543 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1587 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1583 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1587 / 1587
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1587 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Habib Diarra: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Pape Guèye: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Habib Diarra: 1+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Marcus Thuram: 5+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $130-$132 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Kiwoom DRX Academy (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Gio Reyna: 2+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Mo Touré: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ramón Sosa: 4+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tijjani Reijnders: 3+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses Academy (-2.5) vs YFT Esports (+2 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 4+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Junya Itō: 3+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Czechia v Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-6.5) vs Sashi Esport (+6 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
John Yeboah: 3+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Leroy Sané: 1+ shots Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Simon Adingra: 2+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: COD Meknès 3 - 2 HUS Agadir? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
UnionTouargaSports vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Difaâ Hassani El Jadid Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Difaâ Hassani El Jadida (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: UnionTouargaSports (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
RCA Zemamra leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
MLP New York: Florida Smash vs Dallas Flash Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Ajdukovic/Kalender vs. Latinovic/Vrbensky: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs UNO MILLE (+6.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Muchova vs. Tauson: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Gdansk: Raluca Georgiana Serban vs Gina Feistel Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 31m
Habib Diarra: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 37m
Pape Guèye: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39m
Habib Diarra: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 41m
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 51m
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 53m
Marcus Thuram: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $130-$132 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 100¢ $5 10h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Kiwoom DRX Academy (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) BUY Dplus 100¢ $5 11h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Gio Reyna: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 17h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 17h
Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Mo Touré: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Ramón Sosa: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Tijjani Reijnders: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Elye Wahi: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20h
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Keisuke Gotō: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Junya Itō: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses Academy (-2.5) vs YFT Esports (+2 BUY YFT Esports 100¢ $5 21h
John Yeboah: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $30.00 (match) · 3500 history records