Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5dd…d644 other 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%30W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$22
politics 28% −$25
sports 17% −$11
crypto 8% −$9
world 4% −$11
economics 4% −$6
culture 3% −$3
finance 3% −$1
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.1% -10.5% 15% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 74 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 159 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 223 -0.5% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses30 / 193
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage157d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $68 −$2 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $102 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $443 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $639 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $76 −$7 -10%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $280 −$3 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $56 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $87 −$1 -2%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 09 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $45 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 -1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $410 −$2 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $323 −$2 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $232 +$1 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 29 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $85 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $260 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $41 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $65 1h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $65 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $57 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $56 16h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $67 17h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $68 24h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $61 24h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $62 32h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $62 33h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $61 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $67 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $62 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $64 2d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $69 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $36 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $36 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $67 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $67 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $68 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $76 3d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 936 history records