Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa5e3…40e2 other 153 markets active 17h ago coverage 788d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+1%) realized +$71 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%59W / 80L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$15
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$103
politics 26% −$3
other 20% −$22
world 6% −$4
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 31% -4.6%
≤30d 98 -10.3% -18.8% 45% 29% -7.3%
≤90d 102 -11.6% -20.1% 44% 28% -4.2%
all 139 -3.2% -12.5% 42% 27% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 27% -8.6%
10% -20.8% 18% -17.3%
15% -28.5% 14% -25.3%
20% -35.5% 13% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

788d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses59 / 80
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)139 / 153
History coverage788d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $3 $0 +11%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 +$1 +146%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +23%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -22%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $3 +$2 +60%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? SELL No 98¢ $1 16h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 26h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 75¢ $1 28h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 12¢ $1 40h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 42h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 44h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $2 46h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 60¢ $3 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 60¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 75¢ $1 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL No 89¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $1 4d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 92¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.30 · official $60.48 (match) · 414 history records