Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa5e4…d847 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$258 (+19%) realized +$267 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$162
politics 11% +$409
crypto 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +36.9% +23.8% 100% 100% +23.8%
≤30d 1 +36.9% +23.8% 100% 100% +23.8%
≤90d 1 +36.9% +23.8% 100% 100% +23.8%
all 8 +71.1% +54.8% 75% 50% +37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.8% 50% +37.6%
10% +40.0% 38% +24.4%
15% +26.5% 38% +12.4%
20% +14.1% 25% +1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$142 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage234d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $239 $231 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $24 +$92 +385%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $373 −$228 -61%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $144 +$409 +284%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $90 −$55 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $102 +$7 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 31 $165 +$27 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 30 $162 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $116 146d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 6¢ $24 146d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes 7¢ $1 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes 8¢ $7 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes 8¢ $45 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes 8¢ $29 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 SELL Yes 7¢ $63 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $46 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $40 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $2 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $0 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $4 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $7 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $3 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $6 227d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $36 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 12¢ $7 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $12 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $14 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $3 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $10 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $17 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $3 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $5 228d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY Yes 17¢ $1 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.54 · official $230.54 (match) · 79 history records