Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5e6…8133 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate79%66W / 18L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +4.8% -5.2% 79% 77% +0.7%
≤30d 84 +4.8% -5.2% 79% 77% +0.7%
≤90d 84 +4.8% -5.2% 79% 77% +0.7%
all 84 +4.8% -5.2% 79% 77% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 77% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 68% -9.0%
15% -22.6% 24% -17.8%
20% -30.2% 8% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses66 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$16 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$25 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $37 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $37 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records