Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5ed…9bb9 sports 106 markets active 1d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,582 (+10%) realized +$2,582 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%57W / 49L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$56
14 days+$315
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,355
crypto 3% +$679
other 2% +$381
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.4% -21.7% 55% 55% -10.8%
≤30d 50 +9.6% -0.9% 56% 56% +1.9%
≤90d 95 +8.1% -2.2% 54% 54% +1.3%
all 106 +6.9% -3.3% 54% 53% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 53% -0.8%
10% -12.6% 53% -10.3%
15% -21.0% 51% -19.0%
20% -28.8% 43% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$187 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses57 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage151d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $404 +$221 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $503 +$325 +65%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $998 +$497 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1 +$1 +113%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $431 −$426 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $478 +$155 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $347 +$131 +38%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $297 −$293 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $270 −$267 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 +$162 +83%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $200 +$202 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $403 +$152 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$184 +180%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$111 +109%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$101 +197%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $303 +$138 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $102 +$121 +119%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $373 +$114 +31%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $102 +$176 +172%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 +$103 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $102 +$148 +146%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $122 +$176 +144%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $102 +$121 +119%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $102 +$115 +114%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $290 +$249 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 25 $22 +$28 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $300 +$267 +89%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 25 $243 −$239 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $404 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $202 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $503 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,495 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $1 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $998 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $431 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $202 3d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 75¢ $478 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $347 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $297 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $270 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $101 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $41 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $197 9d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $202 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $102 9d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 50¢ $102 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $200 11d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 72¢ $403 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 43¢ $51 16d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 36¢ $51 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $102 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 39¢ $102 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 47¢ $102 17d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 32¢ $102 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $51 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $51 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records