Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5fb…27b2 tech 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%20W / 5L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 26% +$26
politics 22% +$5
world 22% +$11
economics 16% −$11
crypto 14% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 6 -2.5% -11.8% 83% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -0.4% -9.9% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$642) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage153d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 29 $1,198 +$19 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 22 $604 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 17 $302 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $1,125 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 05 $337 −$58 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $338 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 24 $336 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 22 $335 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $1,336 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $332 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 04 $334 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 01 $328 +$6 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 25 $327 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 20 $651 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 12 $320 +$4 +1%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 11 $1,269 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $633 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 18 $316 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 14 $628 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 09 $331 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $1,281 −$12 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $642 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $316 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $302 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $302 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $89 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $213 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $302 7d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $302 11d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $302 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $131 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $118 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records