Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5fb…1adc crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (221 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$137 (+13%) realized +$135 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 51L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day221.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$191
other 13% −$57
sports 7% +$330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (221 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +14.0% +3.1% 40% 36% -2.0%
≤30d 85 +14.0% +3.1% 40% 36% -2.0%
≤90d 85 +14.0% +3.1% 40% 36% -2.0%
all 85 +14.0% +3.1% 40% 36% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover221.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 36% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 31% -11.4%
15% -15.7% 26% -20.0%
20% -24.0% 22% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day221.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 69¢ 82¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$17 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$16 +760%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$27 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$26 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $14.57 (match) · 298 history records