Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5fd…36d1 world 136 markets active 4h ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,500 (-4%) realized −$2,998 · open −$2,502
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%58W / 61L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1,055per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$12,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% +$7,239
world 19% +$6,257
sports 16% −$4,806
economics 11% −$3,062
crypto 10% −$5,844
other 3% +$7,812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.0% +1.3% 46% 46% -17.9%
≤30d 19 -14.3% -22.4% 32% 32% -19.1%
≤90d 44 -17.5% -25.4% 34% 23% -20.3%
all 119 +49.3% +35.0% 49% 41% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 41% -4.2%
10% +22.1% 34% -13.3%
15% ← realistic here +10.3% 27% -21.7%
20% -0.5% 23% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$907) neutral
Persistence
early +79% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$635 vs −$445 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$12,085
Realized−$2,998
Unrealized−$2,502
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses58 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions17
Markets (closed)119 / 136
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$1,055
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $1,901 $7,970 +$6,069 (+319%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $945 $1,390 +$446 (+47%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 13¢ 40¢ $290 $923 +$633 (+218%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 7¢ $124 $441 +$317 (+257%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $243 $374 +$131 (+54%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $4,803 $346 −$4,457 (-93%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $150 $340 +$190 (+127%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $902 $79 −$823 (-91%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4,164 $62 −$4,102 (-99%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $822 $45 −$777 (-95%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $171 $40 −$131 (-77%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 17¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+237%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $85 −$24 -29%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $91 +$185 +203%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $547 −$533 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $169 −$164 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $491 −$480 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $280 +$519 +186%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,019 +$821 +81%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Jun 14 $9 +$9 +100%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Jun 14 $6 +$9 +159%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? Jun 14 $13 +$5 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 14 $907 −$759 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $496 −$460 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $164 −$146 -89%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 10 $988 −$76 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $568 −$546 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 10 $11 −$6 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $80 −$53 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Apr 17 $217 +$11 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $5,336 −$4,182 -78%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? Apr 13 $158 +$36 +23%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $147 −$52 -35%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,001 −$566 -57%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 07 $3,059 −$2,203 -72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 07 $3,446 −$414 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $14,558 +$6,942 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $13,342 −$430 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 24 $4 −$2 -38%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 24 $186 +$5 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 23 $3,498 −$1,748 -50%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 21 $1 $0 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 21 $61 −$11 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 21 $4 $0 +8%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Mar 21 $23 −$1 -6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 21 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $3,734 −$3,197 -86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? Mar 18 $29 −$17 -59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 18 $6,551 +$850 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 18 $4,113 +$830 +20%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? Mar 17 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $20 −$9 -45%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 17 $930 −$290 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $175 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 14¢ $33 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 14¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $181 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $291 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $8 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $120 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,085.10 · official $12,005.69 (match) · 3500 history records