Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A5 0xa5ff…d69f crypto 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$401 (+3%) realized +$401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%67W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days+$517
14 days−$244
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$302
world 15% −$59
other 12% +$177
sports 7% −$121
finance 3% +$15
tech 1% +$10
economics 1% +$5
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.3% +24.2% 100% 100% +26.2%
≤30d 37 +34.6% +21.8% 65% 59% -5.5%
≤90d 86 +11.4% +0.8% 74% 34% -6.9%
all 89 +11.4% +0.8% 75% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 34% -6.7%
10% -8.9% 26% -15.6%
15% -17.7% 17% -23.7%
20% -25.7% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$75 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,855
Realized+$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses67 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage94d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $445 $462 +$17 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? No 77¢ 74¢ $416 $404 −$12 (-3%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $373 $381 +$8 (+2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $230 $239 +$9 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $114 $127 +$13 (+11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? No 78¢ 78¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? No 77¢ 78¢ $116 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? No 8¢ 2¢ $44 $10 −$34 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? Jun 19 $181 +$75 +42%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? Jun 18 $70 +$30 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $452 +$217 +48%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $134 +$46 +34%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$52 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $153 +$53 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 14 $153 +$45 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 13 $411 −$402 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 13 $372 −$363 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 13 $72 −$71 -98%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $152 +$42 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$85 +169%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7? Jun 07 $116 +$52 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $114 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $152 +$38 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$4 +529%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $58 +$604 +1032%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? May 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? May 30 $74 −$73 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 28 $67 +$30 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? May 27 $154 +$74 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $71 +$29 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 27 $153 +$50 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $13 +$7 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? May 23 $0 $0 -86%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 23 $29 −$27 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 23 $30 −$8 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 24? May 23 $26 −$24 -91%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? May 23 $150 +$10 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $134 +$12 +9%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $256 +$33 +13%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $134 +$8 +6%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $150 +$6 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 14 $71 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $116 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 11 $131 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $149 +$17 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 08 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $147 +$12 +8%
James Comey mugshot released by May 5? May 06 $77 +$7 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $52 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? BUY No 77¢ $117 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $114 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $152 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? BUY Yes 76¢ $116 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $117 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? BUY Yes 75¢ $114 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? BUY Yes 74¢ $113 3h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? BUY Yes 78¢ $119 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $153 3h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? BUY Yes 75¢ $114 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $119 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY No 8¢ $47 5h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? BUY Yes 76¢ $116 7h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? BUY Yes 72¢ $153 7h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? BUY Yes 71¢ $109 7h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? BUY Yes 73¢ $112 7h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 9h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $64 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $10 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $23 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $64 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $64 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $81 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $81 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? BUY Yes 71¢ $118 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,855.46 · official $1,843.63 (match) · 237 history records