Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa603…8d7a other 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 27% −$24
politics 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$8
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage142d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $335 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $420 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $561 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $346 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $589 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $287 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $404 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $135 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $426 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $288 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $353 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 6m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 8h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 10h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 11h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 16h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 28h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 29h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 41h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 43h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 44h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.20 · official $54.20 (match) · 1479 history records