Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa605…2744 world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 20% +$2
politics 19% −$1
sports 13% −$12
crypto 4% $0
finance 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 69 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 1% -9.6%
all 80 -7.0% -15.8% 31% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 2% -10.0%
10% -23.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -31.2% 1% -26.5%
20% -38.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage539d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $30 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $23 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $33 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $62 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $61 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $135 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $45 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $62 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $31 −$2 -7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $26 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $10 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $45 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 08 $34 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $3 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $144 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $25 33h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $24 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $23 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $13 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $2 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $29 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $29 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $10 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $22 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $33 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $31 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $31 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.97 · official $29.92 · 317 history records