Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A6 0xa608…1b35 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,336 (+21%) realized +$2,960 · open +$376
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,428per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$7,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$5,158
sports 44% −$2,667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +48.1% +34.0% 40% 40% +17.7%
≤30d 5 +48.1% +34.0% 40% 40% +17.7%
≤90d 5 +48.1% +34.0% 40% 40% +17.7%
all 5 +48.1% +34.0% 40% 40% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.0% 40% +17.7%
10% +21.1% 40% +6.4%
15% ← realistic here +9.4% 40% -3.9%
20% -1.3% 40% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,762 vs −$1,136 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7,065
Realized+$2,960
Unrealized+$376
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,428
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $5,703 $6,079 +$377 (+7%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 28¢ $487 $473 −$14 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $807 −$793 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $640 +$729 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,629 −$2,600 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,464 +$4,795 +328%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,533 −$16 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 34m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $495 34m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $405 49m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 49m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 59m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $95 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $305 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egyp BUY 21¢ $640 5h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end BUY 3¢ $182 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $1,012 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $640 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2,629 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $83 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 24¢ $460 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1,370 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $53 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $147 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $254 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $203 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $508 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,533 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,065.37 · official $7,690.53 · 35 history records