Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa60d…d565 politics 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$22
other 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 81 -4.2% -13.3% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage628d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Aydar Suniev win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Feb 06 $18 $0 -1%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
AOC pregnant in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Elon Musk arrested in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Worthy win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Ripple hit in $1.50 in December? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Dec 10 $0 $0 -3%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Guido Manini Ríos win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to rehab in gun case? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 17h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 21d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 29d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $49 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 34d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 46d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 61d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 62d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 64d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 64d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 71d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 71d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 80d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 80d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 92d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 92d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 95d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 95d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 97d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 97d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 102d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 103d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 106d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records