Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa60e…d332 world 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,297 (-7%) realized −$16,419 · open −$5,878
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate66%93W / 48L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,869per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$652est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$400
14 days+$585
30 days+$2,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$15,367
sports 35% −$1,865
other 4% −$190
finance 3% +$765
politics 2% +$113
economics 0% −$856
crypto 0% +$72
weather 0% +$14
tech 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +10.0% -0.5% 73% 47% -8.1%
≤30d 40 +23.0% +11.3% 85% 42% -5.8%
≤90d 136 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 26% -13.5%
all 141 +2.0% -7.7% 66% 26% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 26% -13.0%
10% -16.5% 15% -21.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.6% 6% -29.0%
20% -32.0% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,463) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$585 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$4,219
Realized−$16,419
Unrealized−$5,878
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses93 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$652
Open positions24
Markets (closed)141 / 166
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$1,869
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $658 $717 +$59 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 39¢ $76 $589 +$513 (+680%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $568 $572 +$4 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $473 $535 +$62 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $555 $522 −$33 (-6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 62¢ 19¢ $1,232 $376 −$856 (-69%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $281 $231 −$50 (-18%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $134 $117 −$17 (-13%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 40¢ 31¢ $150 $116 −$34 (-22%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $86 $67 −$19 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4,688 $45 −$4,643 (-99%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 52¢ 14¢ $168 $44 −$124 (-74%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $48 $40 −$9 (-18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 23¢ 5¢ $171 $36 −$135 (-79%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+36%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 39¢ 40¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $36 $13 −$23 (-64%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 2¢ $154 $6 −$148 (-96%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 52¢ 1¢ $83 $2 −$81 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 0¢ $276 $2 −$274 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 46¢ 1¢ $84 $2 −$83 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $7,277 +$249 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $6,085 −$87 -1%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $94 +$9 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,902 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $363 +$129 +36%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $323 +$35 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,647 +$103 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $163 +$37 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $804 +$84 +10%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $195 +$54 +28%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $257 +$90 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,306 −$145 -11%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $602 −$163 -27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$5 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +15%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $184 +$19 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,038 +$162 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $95 +$6 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 09 $403 +$20 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8? Jun 08 $385 −$71 -18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $682 +$4 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $228 +$28 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $520 +$12 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 05 $47 +$5 +10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $91 +$1 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $84 +$16 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 01 $140 +$40 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $73 +$41 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,218 +$461 +38%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $647 +$72 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $12,874 +$470 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $120 −$64 -53%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $475 +$72 +15%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $15 +$84 +547%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $6,413 +$348 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $285 +$15 +5%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 23 $99 +$6 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $1,298 +$91 +7%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 19 $323 +$111 +34%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 19 $8,682 +$171 +2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $294 −$140 -48%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $164 −$85 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3,758 +$356 +10%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 16 $389 −$173 -44%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $108 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $454 +$36 +8%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $855 +$13 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $409 −$44 -11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 13 $162 +$44 +27%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 13 $512 +$16 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 24m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 25m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 25m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 25m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 25m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $285 25m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $97 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $233 53m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 53m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,219.16 · official $4,219.17 (match) · 3500 history records