Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa60f…e0b7 other 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$28
politics 24% −$13
sports 19% −$16
crypto 7% −$12
world 6% −$2
economics 5% −$5
culture 5% −$5
finance 4% −$13
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 74 -0.9% -10.4% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 152 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 172 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 152
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage100d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 94¢ 94¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $330 −$5 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $65 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $218 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $95 −$1 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 10 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $49 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $66 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $39 −$2 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 03 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $326 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $126 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $188 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 94¢ $53 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $29 2h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $66 6h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $67 14h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $39 15h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $40 21h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 21h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 36h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 37h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 42h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 42h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 42h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $12 2d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 3d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $64 3d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $65 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.36 · official $52.36 (match) · 710 history records