Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa614…7d4c sports 287 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$573 (+5%) realized +$588 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%143W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$111
14 days+$610
30 days+$853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$653
crypto 33% +$710
world 15% +$440
other 13% −$54
finance 1% +$70
culture 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 46% -1.3%
≤30d 68 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 51% +9.5%
≤90d 86 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 52% +8.0%
all 275 +3.1% -6.7% 52% 51% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 51% -5.1%
10% -15.6% 48% -14.2%
15% -23.8% 42% -22.5%
20% -31.3% 35% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$33 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$588
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses143 / 132
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)275 / 287
History coverage167d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $27 $12 −$14 (-54%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $83 +$67 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$109 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $58 +$114 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$26 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$33 -96%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$18 +35%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $17 +$13 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Jun 24 $20 −$15 -74%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $41 +$3 +7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 +$35 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $169 +$96 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$79 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 −$36 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$74 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$96 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$48 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$43 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $161 +$141 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $174 +$155 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $154 +$77 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$22 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 +$9 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 +$9 +61%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$29 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $13 +$67 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.89 · official $106.25 · 963 history records