Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A6 0xa616…218a other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 241d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$56
sports 13% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +67.9% +52.0% 80% 80% +73.8%
≤30d 5 +67.9% +52.0% 80% 80% +73.8%
≤90d 5 +67.9% +52.0% 80% 80% +73.8%
all 7 +41.3% +27.8% 71% 71% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.8% 71% -6.1%
10% +15.6% 71% -15.1%
15% +4.4% 57% -23.3%
20% -5.8% 43% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$238 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage241d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $66 −$32 -49%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $35 +$63 +180%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $108 +$76 +70%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $126 +$50 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $115 +$173 +150%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $802 −$444 -55%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $461 +$140 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 18¢ $4 23m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 9¢ $10 26m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 3¢ $2 27m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 73¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 16¢ $13 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 27¢ $22 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $176 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 71¢ $126 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $62 27h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 87¢ $500 239d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 77¢ $47 239d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 35¢ $547 239d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 26¢ $300 239d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 27¢ $111 239d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 74¢ $358 239d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 73¢ $53 239d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 240d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 240d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 69¢ $50 240d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 240d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records