Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa616…5368 crypto 733 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (668 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$526 (+6%) realized +$538 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%352W / 376L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day668.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$154
weather 5% −$36
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (668 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 728 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 42% -8.4%
≤30d 728 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 728 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 42% -8.4%
all 728 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 42% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover668.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 42% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 36% -17.2%
15% -25.8% 28% -25.2%
20% -33.1% 20% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$538
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses352 / 376
Open positions7
Markets (closed)728 / 733
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day668.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 63¢ 56¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 41¢ 44¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Down 65¢ 100¢ $11 $16 +$6 (+53%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 53¢ 68¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+28%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Down 63¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+57%)
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$4 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$4 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$6 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$4 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$9 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 20, 5AM ET? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$27 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$15 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$26 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$6 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$12 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 20, 4AM ET? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$38 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $54 −$14 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$27 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$7 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $67 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.64 · official $198.64 (match) · 3500 history records