Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa619…1103 crypto 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$473 (+2%) realized +$961 · open −$488
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate65%123W / 67L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day166.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$611
7 days+$689
14 days+$689
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$102
crypto 30% +$761
other 19% −$78
tech 6% −$287
economics 4% −$26
politics 3% +$19
weather 1% −$17
finance 0% +$4
sports 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 32% -6.8%
≤30d 190 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 32% -6.8%
≤90d 190 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 32% -6.8%
all 190 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 32% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 29% -15.7%
15% -23.3% 26% -23.9%
20% -30.8% 24% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$47 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4,329
Realized+$961
Unrealized−$488
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses123 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions34
Markets (closed)190 / 224
History coverage8d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day166.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 50¢ 79¢ $248 $389 +$141 (+57%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $328 $299 −$29 (-9%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $302 $297 −$5 (-2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 81¢ 84¢ $284 $292 +$9 (+3%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $271 $286 +$15 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 73¢ 68¢ $298 $275 −$22 (-8%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 73¢ $269 $250 −$19 (-7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $244 $245 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other No 99¢ 99¢ $228 $229 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $215 $214 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 75¢ 75¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $101 $123 +$22 (+22%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 43¢ 21¢ $214 $106 −$108 (-50%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 82¢ 82¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 80¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 89¢ 89¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 22¢ $187 $69 −$117 (-63%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $68 $44 −$24 (-35%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $47 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 84¢ $16 $40 +$23 (+141%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $124 +$94 +76%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $676 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $124 +$111 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $143 +$49 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$54 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $125 +$136 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $167 +$156 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $145 −$140 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$140 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $145 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$208 +394%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $78 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$91 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$111 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$209 +200%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 23 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$37 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$67 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $32 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $124 35m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $344 36m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $344 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $124 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $125 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $42 2h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 80¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $167 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $211 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $153 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $145 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,329.28 · official $4,368.70 (match) · 1331 history records