Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa61b…9d74 crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$360 (+1%) realized +$500 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%90W / 123L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day108.9pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,336
7 days−$540
14 days−$664
30 days−$1,401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$802
world 31% +$622
finance 27% +$60
other 6% −$88
sports 4% −$56
tech 1% +$6
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +66.8% +50.9% 29% 25% -15.9%
≤30d 209 +14.2% +3.4% 42% 23% -11.3%
≤90d 213 +16.4% +5.3% 42% 23% -10.6%
all 213 +16.4% +5.3% 42% 23% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 23% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -4.8% 21% -19.2%
15% -14.0% 16% -27.0%
20% -22.4% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$44 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized+$500
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses90 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions20
Markets (closed)213 / 194
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$328
Trades / day108.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 94¢ 95¢ $745 $752 +$7 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 68¢ 27¢ $96 $39 −$57 (-60%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 60¢ 73¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+22%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 11¢ $23 $11 −$12 (-51%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Yes 64¢ 6¢ $51 $5 −$46 (-90%)
Will England record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Colombia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will Netherlands record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Japan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? No 3¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-98%)
Will Switzerland record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+59%)
Will Canada record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Austria record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Australia record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Belgium record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Sweden record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will United States record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Scotland record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 29? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? Jun 28 $2 +$5 +316%
Will Solana Network go down in January? Jun 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 28 $28 −$28 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Sam Altman back on OpenAI board by Nov 30? Jun 28 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at 6800–6900 on April 8? Jun 28 $46 −$227 -498%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 28 $18 +$261 +1488%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 28 $114 −$108 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 28 $41 −$6 -15%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 28 $1 −$11 -1442%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 29? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Jun 28 $42 +$29 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 28 $2 +$21 +1040%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Jun 28 $64 −$98 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 28 $38 +$81 +212%
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at 6700–6800 on April 8? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? Jun 28 $49 +$241 +489%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 23? Jun 28 $2 +$5 +348%
Will AI be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? Jun 28 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Trump say "Election" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say a racial slur before February? Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hamas surrender in 2023? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $50 −$29 -58%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $627 −$3 -0%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,668 −$353 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Morocco record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 67¢ $55 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $93 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $47 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $38 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $34 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $94 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $94 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $95 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 75¢ $65 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $24 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $624 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.42 · official $1,152.90 · 3500 history records