Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa61e…6906 crypto 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$567 (+3%) realized +$976 · open −$409
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%58W / 116L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$426
14 days+$422
30 days−$878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$25
other 42% +$1,145
crypto 9% −$305
culture 4% −$392
politics 1% −$37
world 1% −$41
weather 1% −$77
economics 0% −$56
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.4% -32.5% 37% 26% -2.7%
≤30d 75 -28.4% -35.3% 35% 29% -17.2%
≤90d 145 -17.7% -25.5% 29% 23% -5.4%
all 174 -9.4% -18.1% 33% 25% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 25% -5.8%
10% -25.9% 18% -14.8%
15% -33.1% 15% -23.0%
20% -39.6% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$32 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1,007
Realized+$976
Unrealized−$409
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses58 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage210d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India India 50¢ 36¢ $1,416 $1,007 −$409 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $1,702 +$122 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $195 −$61 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $925 +$110 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $264 −$19 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $47 −$34 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $33 −$7 -22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $1,325 +$442 +33%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $1,295 +$110 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 −$8 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 20 $106 −$66 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $75 −$68 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $14 −$11 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $98 −$94 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $159 −$89 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $170 +$126 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $74 +$14 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $24 +$43 +174%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$4 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $365 +$77 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$76 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 31 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 31 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $25 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $36 +$42 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 47¢ $4 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 50¢ $1,433 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 51¢ $1,437 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 64¢ $564 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 63¢ $1,011 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 60¢ $23 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 62¢ $210 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 60¢ $15 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $1,825 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 93¢ $700 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 93¢ $1,002 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $135 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $248 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $673 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $113 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 35¢ $245 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 0¢ $9 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 0¢ $21 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 0¢ $9 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 0¢ $17 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $26 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $925 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,006.97 · official $1,006.97 (match) · 1201 history records