Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa61e…2805 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$21
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$25
other 36% +$1
politics 8% +$1
sports 7% +$7
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 24% 5% -12.9%
≤90d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 24% 5% -12.9%
all 52 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -10.8%
10% -17.7% 2% -19.3%
15% -25.7% 2% -27.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage470d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $29 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $26 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $80 −$21 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $77 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $35 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $48 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $56 −$3 -6%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 24 $20 +$1 +2%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $16 +$8 +48%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 13 $21 $0 -2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $20 $0 +1%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 29 $13 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 30 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $24 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $32 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $32 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records