Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa61e…0abd
tech · 30 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$39,402 +58%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19,953 · open −$1,780
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$263,835
Realized+$19,953
Unrealized−$1,780
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions65
Markets (closed)12 / 30
Avg bet$2,263
Trades / day348.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 65 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,681
7 days+$8,721
14 days+$19,953
30 days+$19,953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 85¢ $28,223 $29,706 +$1,483 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $27,467 $29,625 +$2,158 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 32¢ 23¢ $36,176 $26,621 −$9,555 (-26%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15,230 $15,282 +$52 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $11,468 $12,443 +$975 (+8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $11,711 $11,670 −$41 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $9,630 $10,432 +$802 (+8%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10,450 $10,348 −$102 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $8,491 $8,977 +$486 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $8,100 $8,406 +$307 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 44¢ $2,042 $7,995 +$5,953 (+292%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $6,190 $6,912 +$723 (+12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 86¢ 92¢ $6,015 $6,475 +$460 (+8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 79¢ 82¢ $5,940 $6,188 +$248 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 97¢ $5,570 $5,817 +$247 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $5,132 $5,285 +$153 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $4,254 $4,451 +$196 (+5%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $4,400 $4,425 +$25 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $3,990 $4,072 +$83 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $3,375 $3,600 +$225 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $3,156 $3,230 +$74 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $3,037 $3,216 +$179 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4,456 $3,008 −$1,448 (-32%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 50¢ 51¢ $2,981 $3,002 +$20 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $2,806 $2,951 +$145 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 +$1,405 +2717532%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 12 $1,612 −$1,142 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 12 $98 −$47 -48%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$34 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,110 +$15 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,319 +$5,493 +127%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,155 +$80 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,450 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $1,650 +$2,910 +176%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $720 +$40 +6%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 04 $902 −$902 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17,477 +$12,134 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% −$1,981
tech 11% +$9,217
crypto 7% +$12,134
world 2% +$110
politics 1% +$92
economics 0% −$1,583
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $10 2m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1 3m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $1 13m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $309 20m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 39m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 40m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 40m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 40m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $180 51m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,650 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $156 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $157 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 88¢ $5,452 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $13 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+147.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +210.6% +181.0% 60% 30% +37.3%
≤30d 12 +173.0% +147.0% 58% 33% +42.1%
≤90d 12 +173.0% +147.0% 58% 33% +42.1%
all 12 +173.0% +147.0% 58% 33% +42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover348.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +147.0% 33% +42.1%
10% +123.3% 33% +28.5%
15% ← realistic here +101.7% 33% +16.1%
20% +82.0% 33% +4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263,835.20 · official $263,794.83 (match) · 3500 history records