Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa61f…7993 sports 737 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 254d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,769 (-3%) realized −$5,757 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%334W / 398L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$761est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,753
7 days+$549
14 days+$1,063
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$7,619
other 3% +$1,830
crypto 3% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +32.1% +19.6% 40% 40% -3.4%
≤30d 46 +4.2% -5.8% 37% 37% -10.9%
≤90d 351 -72.1% -74.7% 11% 11% -53.1%
all 732 +0.5% -9.0% 46% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 43% -12.3%
10% -17.7% 43% -20.7%
15% -25.7% 41% -28.4%
20% -33.0% 40% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +67% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$210 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$738
Realized−$5,757
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses334 / 398
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$761
Open positions5
Markets (closed)732 / 737
History coverage254d ⚠
Avg bet$245
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 59¢ 58¢ $295 $292 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $168 $166 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $557 +$443 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $427 +$573 +134%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $464 +$336 +72%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 20 $164 +$136 +83%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $486 +$314 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $795 −$195 -24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $448 −$448 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $470 +$530 +113%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $520 −$520 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $597 +$403 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $547 −$540 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $403 +$497 +124%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $180 −$176 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $537 −$530 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $590 −$590 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $527 +$473 +90%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $54 +$796 +1477%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 −$470 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $492 +$708 +144%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $570 −$570 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $377 +$423 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $329 +$371 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $302 +$498 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $224 −$220 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $279 −$246 -88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $351 −$345 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) May 25 $206 +$144 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 24 $254 −$250 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 May 24 $102 +$98 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 23 $557 −$550 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $376 +$324 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 22 $440 −$440 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 22 $591 −$583 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $848 +$752 +89%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $220 −$220 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $424 −$424 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $194 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $171 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 59¢ $299 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $38 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $557 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $427 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $227 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $7 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $9 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $221 26h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 43h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 43h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $486 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $195 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $59 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $49 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $31 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $50 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.57 · official $737.57 (match) · 3500 history records