Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa623…384f other 802 markets active 1d ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,129 (+6%) realized +$1,169 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%197W / 602L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$6
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,278
politics 3% −$94
world 1% +$11
economics 1% −$36
weather 1% −$85
finance 0% −$10
sports 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 37 +41.2% +27.8% 19% 19% +75.9%
≤90d 131 +17.1% +5.9% 21% 20% +29.7%
all 799 +7.7% -2.6% 25% 24% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 24% -5.4%
10% -11.9% 22% -14.4%
15% -20.4% 21% -22.7%
20% -28.2% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$18 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1,169
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses197 / 602
Open positions3
Markets (closed)799 / 802
History coverage607d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 799 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 358 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +582%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$68 +2155%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $10 +$61 +582%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $36 +$58 +159%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $18 +$71 +402%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $31 +$26 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $14 +$98 +717%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $71 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 10d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 14d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 15d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 15d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 20d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $71 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.12 · official $7.14 (match) · 1732 history records