Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa623…cbb0
crypto · 298 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$39 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses117 / 180
Open positions1
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage79d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 297 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 23 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 23 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 23 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 23 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 23 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 23 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 23 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 23 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 23 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 23 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $7 −$6 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$85
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $9 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.2% -42.3% 25% 12% -41.1%
≤30d 73 -6.1% -15.1% 36% 26% -19.2%
≤90d 297 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 35% -16.0%
all 297 -7.9% -16.7% 39% 35% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 35% -16.0%
10% -24.6% 33% -24.1%
15% -31.9% 29% -31.4%
20% -38.6% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $3.99 (match) · 720 history records