Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa628…1f6b world 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$6
other 28% +$4
sports 16% +$30
economics 9% +$1
politics 5% −$7
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 45 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -3.3% -12.5% 46% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 5% -9.3%
10% -20.9% 5% -18.0%
15% -28.5% 4% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage553d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $178 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $77 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $76 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $87 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $256 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $253 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $90 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $82 −$4 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $165 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $85 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $84 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $82 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $7 −$1 -7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $632 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $145 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $149 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $324 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $155 +$8 +5%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $680 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $80 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $680 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $618 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 23 $21 +$1 +5%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $84 12m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $85 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $71 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $76 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $76 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $77 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $56 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $76 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $44 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $15 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $76 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $84 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $84 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $84 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $84 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $37 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $44 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $8 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records