Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A6 0xa62a…f05b sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,006 (-1%) realized −$4,991 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate78%143W / 41L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,860per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1,621est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$16,377
other 28% +$12,367
politics 2% +$1,177
world 1% +$479
crypto 1% +$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +7.6% -2.7% 88% 58% -2.2%
≤30d 89 -4.5% -13.6% 80% 56% -20.2%
≤90d 184 -3.5% -12.7% 78% 58% -9.9%
all 184 -3.5% -12.7% 78% 58% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 58% -9.9%
10% -21.0% 25% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 14% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$2,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$444 vs −$1,601 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$2,485
Realized−$4,991
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses143 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,621
Open positions3
Markets (closed)184 / 187
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1,860
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Netherlands 90¢ 90¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 72¢ 72¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,566 +$318 +20%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,512 +$515 +34%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $1,002 +$75 +8%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $1,004 +$158 +16%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $305 +$362 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Jun 28 $417 +$26 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,508 +$300 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $359 +$66 +18%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $313 +$45 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,001 +$378 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,008 +$380 +38%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 27 $222 +$16 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,655 +$121 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $1,805 +$177 +10%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,504 +$143 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,006 +$216 +11%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 25 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $303 +$183 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10,008 +$249 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9,992 +$1,322 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $831 +$397 +48%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $1,014 −$922 -91%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,019 +$901 +45%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,506 +$218 +14%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $1,005 +$187 +19%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $990 +$51 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $801 +$46 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,507 +$301 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,965 +$548 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,499 +$450 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,330 +$159 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$94 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,715 +$713 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,640 +$177 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $501 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $1,008 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 90¢ $1,003 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $503 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 83¢ $1,063 22h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $1,512 22h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 93¢ $1,002 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,003 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 86¢ $1,004 30h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $1,004 36h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Jordan 94¢ $417 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 46h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 46h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 46h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 84¢ $359 2d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $313 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Portugal 90¢ $1,003 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $1,508 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $1,001 2d
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 93¢ $222 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $1,008 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $1,655 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 91¢ $1,805 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $1,007 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 91¢ $1,504 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,006 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,484.75 · official $2,484.75 (match) · 454 history records