Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A6 0xa62e…08a4 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$58 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%158W / 1L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$14
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
world 0% −$31
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 149 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 159 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$32 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses158 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage134d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $432 $426 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? Jun 19 $422 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $422 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 18 $432 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $431 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 17 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $430 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? Jun 15 $429 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $426 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $427 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $426 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $426 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $425 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 8? Jun 09 $424 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $424 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $417 +$4 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 6? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 6? Jun 07 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 5? Jun 06 $418 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $417 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $414 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $414 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $412 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $411 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $409 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $408 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $407 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $407 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 24? May 25 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 24? May 25 $146 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 24? May 25 $170 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $403 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $402 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 18? May 19 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 18 $403 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 17? May 18 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $402 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 11? May 12 $401 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 11 $401 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 10? May 11 $399 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $432 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $422 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $432 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $431 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $430 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $430 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $430 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $429 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $426 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $427 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $426 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $426 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $425 12d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $424 12d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $424 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $424 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $417 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $352 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,350 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $65 15d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $418 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $417 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $414 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $414 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $413 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $413 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $413 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $412 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $411 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.38 · official $426.38 (match) · 344 history records